How Retail Feasibility Studies Help Protect Investments and Reduce Risk
Every retail development begins with a set of assumptions. The catchment will support the space. Retailers will want to be there. Rents will cover the cost of building it.
A feasibility study is where those assumptions are tested before the land is bought, the design is fixed and the capital is committed. Its cost is modest next to that of a retail centre that opens into the wrong market.
Yet feasibility work is still often treated as a document for lenders or commissioned after the key decisions have already been made. Used properly and early, it is one of the most effective tools a developer or investor has for protecting capital.
Key Takeaway:
- A retail feasibility study tests whether a proposed development is commercially viable before significant capital is committed.
- Its value comes from combining market research, catchment analysis, competitor benchmarking and financial modelling, rather than relying on any one of them.
- Scenario testing shows how a project performs when costs rise, opening slips or leasing slows.
- A feasibility study cannot eliminate investment risk, but it reduces uncertainty, challenges assumptions and supports commercially informed decisions.
Understanding Retail Feasibility Studies
A retail feasibility study answers one question: should this project proceed, and if so, in what form? It does so by bringing several disciplines together.
Market research establishes a wider context, including population growth, household income, consumer trends and the economic outlook. Catchment analysis defines who the centre will serve, mapping primary, secondary and tertiary trade areas by drive time and measuring the spending power within each. Competitor benchmarking examines existing and planned retail projects, from their size and occupancy to their tenant mix, strengths and weaknesses. Financial modelling then translates these findings into rents, costs and returns.
Each element on its own gives only a partial picture. A strong catchment means little if three competing centres open nearby in the same year, and an attractive financial model means little if the rents it assumes cannot be achieved. The value of the study lies in testing each finding against the others.
Validating Market Demand
Demand validation starts with people. Who lives and works within reach of the site, how is that population changing, and what do they spend on retail, food and leisure? Demographic profile and household income shape not only how much space the market can support, but also what kind of centre it will reward.
Supply comes next. The study measures how much retail space already serves the catchment and how much is planned. In fast-growing markets, the pipeline matters as much as current stock, because the centre will open into the market as it stands several years from now.
Bringing demand and supply together shows whether there is a genuine gap the project can fill. Sometimes the answer confirms the brief. Sometimes it points to a smaller scheme, a different tier or a different mix. Occasionally it shows that the project should not proceed in its current form. That is the most valuable finding a study can produce, because it arrives before the capital is spent.
Strengthening Financial Projections
A financial model is only as reliable as its inputs. Feasibility work replaces optimistic assumptions with evidence, line by line.
On the income side, the study estimates achievable base rents by unit type and category, benchmarked against comparable centres rather than the strongest deal in the market. It projects occupancy over time, recognising that new centres lease up gradually. It also considers income beyond base rent, including service charge recovery and commercialisation revenue from specialty leasing and media.
On the cost side, it accounts for land, construction and soft costs, along with the operating expenses the centre will carry once it opens. These are then brought together into the measures investors use to judge a project: project IRR, equity IRR, net present value and payback period. The result is a set of projections that can stand up to scrutiny from a lender, a partner or an investment committee.
Identifying Development and Leasing Risks
Many of the most expensive decisions in retail development concern scale and shape. How much leasable area should be built? How should it be divided between anchors, line shops and food and beverage? What positioning will retailers respond to?
A feasibility study answers these questions with evidence. By relating catchment spending and expected footfall to the proposed space, it indicates how much GLA the market can realistically absorb. Too much space dilutes footfall and leaves units empty. Too little leaves demand unserved and invites a competitor to fill the gap.
The study also tests leasing potential directly. It identifies which categories are undersupplied, which anchors and operators are likely to be interested, and what rents they can sustain. These findings shape the tenant mix and positioning, and from there the design brief. Settling them at the feasibility stage costs far less than discovering a mismatch once the building is designed or the leasing campaign has stalled.
Testing Assumptions and Preparing for Uncertainty
No forecast survives contact with the market entirely intact. Construction costs move, approvals take longer than planned, and retailers commit more slowly than projected. A feasibility study that presents a single outcome gives investors false confidence.
Scenario modelling addresses this by testing the project under different conditions. Typical scenarios include:
- Cost increases: higher construction or soft costs, and their effect on returns and funding requirements
- Opening delays: a later opening date, with its cost in finance charges and deferred income
- Slower leasing: lower initial occupancy, longer rent-free periods or larger tenant incentives
- Changing market conditions: new competing supply, softer rents or a shift in consumer spending
Sensitivity analysis then shows which variables matter most. If returns hold up under reasonable stress, investors can proceed with confidence. If a modest change in one assumption erodes the business case, the developer learns where the project needs more margin, a different phasing strategy or a revised scope, and learns it before committing capital.
When to Undertake a Feasibility Study
The best time for a feasibility study is before the decisions it informs have been made. In practice, that means three situations.
New developments.
Ideally, the study comes before land acquisition, or at least before the concept and design brief are fixed. At this stage, its findings can still shape the size, positioning and mix of the scheme at little cost.
Masterplanned communities and mixed use districts.
In a large masterplan, retail is one land use among many, and its scale and location depend on the residential, office and hospitality components around it. Feasibility work determines how much retail the masterplan can support, where it should sit and how it should be phased as the population grows. Building too much retail ahead of the community it serves is a costly error.
Repositioning and turnaround of existing assets.
An underperforming centre needs a different kind of study. Here, the analysis covers current trading performance, tenant mix, footfall patterns and physical layout alongside the wider market, and asks what the asset could become. It tests whether reconfiguration, a new anchor strategy, an expanded food and leisure offer or a change of positioning would generate a return that justifies the investment.
Choosing the Right Feasibility Approach
Feasibility studies vary widely in quality. Some are financial models with a short market summary attached. Others are market reports that stop short of the numbers. Neither gives a developer what it needs.
Scenario modelling addresses this by testing the project under different conditions. Typical scenarios include:
- Financial modelling that produces credible returns and tests them under realistic scenarios
- Retail market intelligence grounded in current data on catchments, supply, rents and retailer demand
- Development planning that understands how GLA, unit mix, layout and phasing affect both cost and performance
- Leasing expertise that knows which retailers are expanding, what they require and what terms they will accept
The last of these is the most often missing, and it matters a great deal. Advisors who lease retail space understand where retailer appetite actually sits, so rent and occupancy assumptions can be tested against real market behaviour rather than desk research alone.
Developers should also look for independence. A study written to support a decision that has already been taken offers little protection.
Reducing Uncertainty Before Capital Is Committed
A retail feasibility study cannot eliminate investment risk. Markets shift, costs move and consumer behaviour evolves in ways no model can fully predict.
What a well executed study can do is reduce uncertainty, challenge the assumptions a project rests on and show how it performs when conditions turn against it. That gives developers and investors something more valuable than a forecast: the ability to make commercially informed decisions while they still have the freedom to change course.
How PHIL McARTHUR & PARTNERS Supports Developers and Investors
PHIL McARTHUR & PARTNERS was founded in Dubai in 2012 by Phil McArthur and advises shopping centre developers, investors and asset owners across the GCC, MENA and international markets. Our team brings more than 150 years of combined experience and has contributed to over 200 projects in more than 30 countries, representing over USD 20 billion in project investment.
Our Market Research & Feasibility Studies and Financial Modelling & Feasibility Reporting services bring market intelligence, development planning, leasing expertise and financial analysis together in a single study. On Jeddah Central Development, our work began with a market assessment study and competitive positioning. On Lusail Boulevard in Qatar, it covered market research and feasibility, financial modelling and business planning, alongside leasing strategy and execution. For operating centres, our Operating Mall Review & Turnaround Strategy applies the same discipline to assets that need to be repositioned.
If you are evaluating a new retail development, a masterplan or an underperforming asset, speak with our team before the capital is committed. Contact us to discuss your project.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a retail feasibility study?
A retail feasibility study assesses whether a proposed retail development is commercially viable. It combines market research, catchment analysis, competitor benchmarking and financial modelling to test demand, achievable rents, costs and returns. Its purpose is to help developers and investors decide whether to proceed, and in what form, before committing significant capital.
What does a retail feasibility study include?
A typical study covers the economic and demographic context, trade area definition, consumer spending, existing and planned competing supply, and the site itself. It then recommends the scale, positioning and tenant mix, and models rental income, occupancy, development and operating costs, and returns such as IRR, NPV and payback period.
How does a feasibility study reduce investment risk?
It replaces assumptions with evidence and tests the project under realistic stress. Scenario modelling shows how returns respond to higher costs, opening delays, slower leasing and changing market conditions. Developers can then adjust the scale, phasing or scope of a project, or decide not to proceed, before the capital is spent.
When should a developer commission a retail feasibility study?
Ideally before acquiring land or fixing the concept and design brief. At that stage, the findings can still shape the size, positioning and mix of the scheme at little cost. Feasibility work is also valuable during masterplanning and when considering the repositioning of an existing centre.
Can a feasibility study help an underperforming shopping centre?
Yes. For an operating centre, the study reviews trading performance, tenant mix, footfall and layout against the current market and competition. It then tests options such as reconfiguration, new anchors or a stronger food and leisure offer, so that owners can see which investment is likely to produce a worthwhile return.