What Is a Retail Development Market Research and Financial Feasibility Report?
Ask a developer why a commercial project worked out, and they rarely will mention that the architect is responsible. If they were asked when one went poorly, they probably won’t even think of blaming it on the architect. It doesn’t depend on who designed the building or how the designs look; the success or failure of a shopping mall is mainly decided before the construction starts, at the very point when market research and financial feasibility have either been done comprehensively or treated as a mere formality.
Every retail destination is not just a real estate project. There are different levels of complexity in retail feasibility that go beyond just having the demand for bricks and mortar. A feasibility document does not automatically mean that the project will be successful and development risk will be completely ruled out; what it gives is a guide for identifying the opportunity, the market, the competition, and the possible risks before capital is actually invested.
Key Takeaway:
- Feasibility reports are the tools used for decision-making through the provision of data, but they do not ensure the success of a particular project.
- Three things mainly underpin retail feasibility; namely the site, the market and the competition.
- Cutting through the noise, it is not only the market demand that is vital but a company’s ability to take up a market share that decides for a project if it can generate sales on a sustainable basis.
- Sensitivity analysis is the study of how a project will perform if key variables like leasing velocity , price, and cost assumptions are altered. This is not to say that it ignores the positive scenarios only or the best guess.
The Three Pillars of Retail Feasibility: Site, Market, and Competition
A standard feasibility study for retail development is a combination of three factors: physical location, the overall market, and other players in the field. Through a feasibility study, we can see whether the site can become a successful location, whether it will be possible to sell to enough people, and whether the proposed project can attract a share of customers from the local competitors.
It is common to see feasibility studies that only look at one aspect at a time, but that is where the mistake happens. It is possible to have an excellent site but very limited potential in the market, as in having a strong market and having all competitors already dominating it. Both of these situations can destroy the very foundations of a good idea.
Site Analysis: The Starting Point for Commercial Potential
Site analysis looks at all the physical aspects of the land: whether or not people can reach the place by foot or car, what the way is to enter and leave the property, the presence of car parking spots, travel time and connection with public transportation or major streets, as well as the ease of traveling to the location from various areas of the city.
That analysis, all of it, forms the basis of the study of commercial potential. One example is that a well-accepted idea being placed in a hard-to-reach or poorly connected location may not achieve its goals, no matter how good your market study has been.
Market Analysis: Understanding the Size and Quality of Demand
Market analysis is the process of studying various factors within a geographical area such as the number of people, income levels, age distribution, characteristics of the economy, and the pattern of population growth while also understanding consumer behaviour and their spending habits.
The ultimate goal is to not only grasp the size of the market but also its characteristics. A number of customers who can hardly afford goods would, of course, not present a promising situation compared to a few customers who are well off and have plenty of money to spend.
Competition Analysis: Where Are Consumers Already Spending?
Competition should be carefully considered at every stage in the feasibility process, since it indicates where people are spending their money not only in existing shopping centres but also through high streets, souks and other retail centres, including those outside the immediate market.
The primary issue here is not whether there is a niche to be filled, but rather the degree of share in the market which a good location can actually win. Opening the door will not help a new venture compete equally with seasoned rivals; the report must, therefore, evaluate sincerely whether it offers something that is really attractive enough to bring consumers from other retail destinations, apart from the spots they usually shop at.
Market Share and Sales Performance
Market demand, market positioning, consumer behaviour, market share and sales performance are all interrelated. If a few well-established malls are already the main shopping venues of a city, a new commercial centre won’t only bring a fresh stream of customers, but it will also change the way spending is divided among the competing malls in the area.
As such, a proper investigation of the project’s feasibility will include projecting the retail expenditure that the new development can realistically capture, a key number that will define almost all elements of the development, including the combination of tenants and rental-level assumptions.
Defining the Project’s Competitive Niche
A feasibility study aims to do more than merely identify if another shopping centre can go up; it should establish which kind of retail destination stands the biggest chance to thrive in that area.
Subject to the local catchment, it may involve the development of a centre that includes luxury boutiques or fine dining. Perhaps it may need to focus on family entertainment, or fast fashion brand operators.
The central idea is to understand what unique offering does the retail destination provide in the market, and whether there is scope to compete in that niche.
Consumer Behaviour as Part of Feasibility
Consumer habits and retail feasibility go hand in hand. The research has to cover what consumers are looking for, shopping habits, product preferences, and whether a change in the concept brings about a new change in their shopping style.
Not only will a good retail establishment be able to cater to existing consumer habits, but it will also lead to a transformation of those habits, just as an intelligently introduced new concept can dramatically change consumer expectations and snatch market share from long-established rivals.
Financial Feasibility: Modelling the Commercial Assumptions
Financial feasibility is the means of translating a business or property development concept into financial numbers with the help of various assumptions that the project team has decided upon, such as projected level of sales, rental income, occupancy rate, operating costs, revenues, and the return on investment.
This kind of analysis allows business owners and developers to understand if a project will be economically viable, that is, whether the project will produce profits which are in line with the risks and amount of capital employed. It turns the survey of markets into a set of numbers which can be used as the basis for underwriting by the investor and financing by the lender.
Sensitivity Analysis: Testing the Resilience of the Investment
Good financial planning is not based on one overly positive forecast; it examines various scenarios. How will it turn out if estimated rents are only part of the target? What happens if sales are lower than the forecast, or the project gets only a small part of the market in question?
That is what sensitivity analysis is all about: it allows developers and investors to evaluate the resilience of a given investment not only in the base case scenario but also when some less-than-perfect assumptions are at work.
Why Feasibility Is Not a Guarantee
Such a correction must be very important to implement. A feasibility study should not be given as a way of “doing” a test of the market beforehand, or as evidence that the project will succeed; a new construction is not really put to the test until it gets opened.
The real purpose of feasibility is lowering uncertainty, questioning assumptions, finding out threats, and creating reasonable financial forecasts, not eradicating risk.
International Benchmarking
The research scope needs to be more than just the local market. Exploring well-performing retail concepts around the world gives developers insight into the trends, formats, anchor concepts, and ways of working of different retailers.
Such a cross-border view would assist in identifying local market potential areas.
How PHIL McARTHUR & PARTNERS Can Support Retail Development Feasibility
Experienced consultants in the retail development sector, like PHIL McARTHUR & PARTNERS, use a market feasibility approach that looks at real market demand, consumer behaviour, competitive supply and potential tenants, rather than optimistic assumptions made to justify a predetermined conclusion. PHIL McARTHUR & PARTNERS has over 150 years of combined management experience and has successfully executed about 200 projects in more than 30 countries. They have carried out works on major developments like the Jeddah Central Development, Mall of Qatar, DIFC Dubai, and Lusail Boulevard, Qatar.
Because of a combination of market research, feasibility assessment, financial planning, and leasing strategy expertise, the firm can meet client needs at any point of the retail destination journey for many markets, including those in the GCC, MENA, and international markets. PHIL McARTHUR & PARTNERS provide Shopping Mall Tenant Mix Planning and Retail Leasing Strategy & Advisory services through which developers are helped to go beyond their intuition and experience to make investment decisions based on facts.
Conclusion
A market research and feasibility study essentially works as a guide for commercial activities; it is a method of checking whether there is a place for a retail business in the market, figuring out how the business can be best positioned, and identifying the premises to be met before this business can be a success.
Its main function is to give the developers a picture beyond their own experiences and gut feelings, based on a market analysis, risks from competitors, needs of the targeted customers, estimated sales, and overall financial results.
FAQS
What is a retail development market research report?
The report will reveal the differences between initial ideas and the actual market characteristics very early on, when making changes still doesn’t cost a lot.
Why is retail development market analysis important for developers?
It will help to find out differences between initial thinking and reality before it has gone very far and changes become too costly.
What does retail market research for developers typically cover?
Site location, demographics of local people, availability of similar businesses, spending habits, market segment and positioning are considered in this analysis.
How does a retail development feasibility study assess project viability?
We use market research as well as financial projections and sensitivity analysis to find out if the returns are sufficient for the capital risk.
Can a feasibility study guarantee a retail project’s success?
No. Although it lowers the level of uncertainty and tests the initial assumptions, a retail project’s true success can only be confidently determined once it is in operation.